Friday, June 4, 2010

The Klugey Commandments

Timicism has a new Bible.

Well, sort of. The whole concept of a Bible is antithetical to Timicism, since no one book, person, or source can be the ultimate authority. But if Timicism had a Bible, its current incarnation would be a book written by Psychology professor Gary Marcus titled Kluge: The Haphazard Construction of the Human Mind.

I won't say that this book changed my life so much as it confirmed it. It confirmed many of the ideas and theories I already had about human behavior and the nature of the universe. (Fittingly, "confirmation bias" is one of the the forces at work in our brains that the book reaffirms.)

Citing study after study after study after study, Marcus shows how people make decisions based on irrelevant factors. We are not necessarily rational, even when we are deliberative. He chalks this up to the klugey way that our brains evolved. "We are just not born to reason in balanced ways," he writes.

There is way too much good stuff in the book to process out here on my blog, so I will just present Marcus' 13 "suggestions" to deal with our imperfect brains. Many of these suggestions correspond with my own Timicist principles. I'll call them my 13 Kluge Commandments-- with the caveat that they're not really commandments-- because I like the reference to that other religion and the [K]-sound alliteration.

The 13 Kluge Commandments (excerpted directly from Kluge, pgs. 165-172.)
  1. Whenever possible, consider alternative hypotheses.
  2. Reframe the question.
  3. Always remember that correlation does not entail causation.
  4. Never forget the size of your sample.
  5. Anticipate your own impulsivity and pre-commit.
  6. Don't just set goals. Make contingency plans.
  7. Whenever possible, don't make important decisions when you are tired or have other things on your mind. [This one deserves an asterisk.]
  8. Always weigh benefits against costs.
  9. Imagine that your decisions may be spot-checked.
  10. Distance yourself.
  11. Beware the vivid, the personal, and the anecdotal.
  12. Pick your spots.
  13. Try to be rational.
For copyright reasons, I don't want to quote more than this from Marcus' book. But each of these points make a lot more sense after you've read it. I encourage any Timicists out there to buy, or at least read, the new Timicist "bible."